Micron Q3 earnings today: HBM4 ramp, record 81% gross margins expected; NVIDIA Vera Rubin focus
Micron Technology reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings today (June 24) after market close, with Wall Street consensus expecting $34.5–5B in revenue and ~$20 EPS. The company has guided for ~81% gross margins, which would be record profitability in its 47-year history if delivered. All eyes are on HBM4 production ramping for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform: Micron has begun volume production of HBM4 (36GB, 12-high stack) delivering bandwidth >2.8 TB/s and ~20% better power efficiency than HBM3E.
The structural story is HBM supply scarcity turning into pricing power. Micron's full HBM capacity for calendar 2026 and early 2027 has been fully booked by customers. HBM4 ramp speed has reached twice that of HBM3E generation, compressing the time between new product and meaningful revenue. Management has repeatedly emphasized that DRAM and NAND supply shortages will persist well beyond 2026, with long-term supply agreements locking in volume and pricing. For fiscal 2026, analysts project full-year EPS of ~$58, up 651% from $7.68 in fiscal 2025, with fiscal 2027 consensus reaching ~$98 per share.
Three variables will drive the market reaction June 24–25: (1) Hard revenue contribution from HBM4 in Q3, (2) forward HBM4 allocations and demand signals for Vera Rubin Ultra in 2027, (3) sustainability of ~81% gross margins into Q4 and full-year 2027. RBC Capital raised its target to $1,200, Cantor Fitzgerald to $1,500, and Goldman Sachs cited tight DRAM supply and margin visibility as key themes. Wall Street has no sell ratings on the stock.
Micron's re-rating from cyclical to secular growth hinge on whether management’s narrative holds: that AI-driven memory demand is structural, not cyclical. The market has bought this story, but inflation in memory pricing, oversupply signals from other vendors, or weakness in hyperscaler capex spend could quickly reverse the thesis. Watch for commentary on SK Hynix and Samsung competitive positioning, which currently hold 62% and growing share in HBM.
Sources
- Primary source
- tradingkey.com
“Micron reports Q3 FY2026 earnings on June 24. Analysts expect EPS near $20 and revenue of $34.7B as investors focus on HBM4 demand, Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, margins and FY2027 guidance”
- indmoney.com
“Micron began volume production of HBM4 (36GB, 12-high stack) for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, delivering bandwidth above 2.8 TB/s and more than 20% better power efficiency than HBM3E”
- tradingkey.com
“Micron's HBM capacity for the entirety of 2026 and even into early 2027 has been fully booked by customers”
- indmoney.com
“For full FY2026, analysts project EPS of approximately $57.71 , up 651% from $7.68 in FY2025, with FY2027 consensus reaching $97.77 per share”
- tradingkey.com
“RBC Capital has elevated its $525 target to $1,200 on June 15 based on AI demand, while C.J. Muse at Cantor Fitzgerald is the Street's most aggressive target at $1,500”