Microsoft Q4 earnings today; FY2027 capex guidance expected $255–260B (+35% YoY)
Microsoft reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after market close today with consensus expectations of $87.62 billion revenue (+14.6% YoY) and $4.24 EPS. Azure cloud growth is guided at 39–40% constant currency. The real market focus is FY2027 capital expenditure guidance, with UBS and analyst consensus now expecting $255–260 billion—a 35% year-over-year increase from the $190 billion Microsoft committed to calendar 2026.
The $190B 2026 capex already stunned investors last quarter; Microsoft cited soaring memory and component costs (roughly $25B of the spend), finance lease impacts, and aggressive data center buildout to meet hyperscaler and enterprise AI demand. For FY2027, the expected jump reflects continued component inflation, the need to add GPU/CPU/storage capacity faster, and competitive pressure from Alphabet's recent capex raise to $205B. Management must convince the street that incremental spending maps to incremental revenue, not just a race to match Alphabet's infrastructure bet.
Investors will also track AI revenue (currently $37B annual run-rate, up 123% YoY) and Copilot adoption signals. Microsoft faces persistent supply constraints for external customers, and internal allocation decisions between research, Azure cloud, and OpenAI relationship obligations remain tense. Azure at 39–40% growth is the bar—anything below signals that capacity constraints are limiting customer demand monetization.
The earnings release arrives as MSFT has fallen 19% YTD amid fears that capex will outrun revenue growth. A beat on Q4 revenue and earnings is expected; the capex number and management tone on 2027 ROI will determine if the stock finds support or tests lower.