OpenAI leans toward 2027 IPO, holding firm on $1T valuation floor
OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its initial public offering to 2027, a reversal from the late-2026 timeline the company signaled in January, according to sources familiar with the deliberations. CEO Sam Altman has told executives that any reduction from the $1 trillion valuation target is off the table. The shift comes after SpaceX's historically large IPO (priced at $135/share on June 12) fell to $153 by June 26, dampening investor enthusiasm for high-valuation tech debuts. OpenAI's advisers presented two paths: accept a lower valuation for a Q4 2026 listing, or wait until 2027 to pursue the $1 trillion target. Altman rejected the first path.
OpenAI's last private valuation stood at $850 billion; reaching $1 trillion requires either fresh investor enthusiasm or organic revenue growth. CFO Sarah Friar has internally advocated for the 2027 timeline, citing the company's heavy cash burn, $600 billion in compute infrastructure commitments through 2030, and internal revenue target misses recently reported. OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8. Rival Anthropic (confidential filing on June 1) is targeting an October 2026 Nasdaq debut at a $965 billion valuation, putting OpenAI second-to-market in the AI IPO sequence.
Market pricing on OpenAI's odds shifted sharply post-SpaceX: prediction-market trackers show OpenAI's probability of completing an IPO by December 31, 2026 fell below 30% from over 50%. Banks told both OpenAI and Anthropic that whoever lists first will define the new industry; SpaceX's volatile first weeks demonstrated that extreme valuations face immediate post-IPO pressure if growth narratives crack.
For architects: the timing delay signals that both frontier labs see IPO readiness tied to revenue scale, not just model capability or user base. Watch for leaked revenue figures as internal models mature—a $1T IPO valuation locks in near-term margin assumptions. Monitor whether OpenAI's capex commitments to 2030 ($600B) translate to corresponding revenue forecasts in the eventual prospectus, or whether they signal outsized bet-making capacity.