OpenAI shifts IPO target to 2027; Anthropic poised to list first in October at $965B

OpenAI is leaning toward postponing its initial public offering to 2027, a reversal from the late-2026 timeline the company signaled since January. CEO Sam Altman has rejected any valuation below $1 trillion, while CFO Sarah Friar has internally pushed for a 2027 delay. Advisers laid out two paths: wait until 2027 to target the $1 trillion valuation, or accept a lower price and list in late 2026. SpaceX's public debut—which peaked above $2 trillion but has since shed 25–30% —reportedly amplified concerns inside OpenAI about how public markets would receive another high-profile AI listing.

Anthropic, by contrast, has moved faster. The company filed its confidential S-1 on June 1 and is targeting an October 2026 Nasdaq listing at a $965 billion valuation, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. Bankers at both firms have told clients that "whoever lists first will define the industry." June 19 remarks by Trump softening his stance on Anthropic—he told Axios he no longer views it as a national security threat—cleared the political path for that October listing. OpenAI's prediction-market odds of completing an IPO by year-end 2026 have plummeted to roughly 30%, with some markets now favoring a "no IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome.

For investors and enterprise buyers: the IPO sequencing has shifted the competitive dynamic. Anthropic's October listing would set the AI IPO template, potentially constraining OpenAI's public-market reception. OpenAI's higher burn (projected $74 billion loss in 2028 vs. Anthropic's 2028 breakeven projection) and execution risks around model releases (e.g., GPT-5.6 government gates) compound the timing pressure. Monitor Anthropic's S-1 filing and IPO roadshow for comparable-company valuations and venture-debt multiples.