ASML raises full-year guidance again on AI chip demand; expects €43–45B revenue, gross margin to 54–56%

ASML, the Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker, raised its 2026 guidance for the second time this year, now expecting full-year sales of €43–45 billion and gross margin of 54–56%, up from prior guidance of €36–40 billion and 51–53% margin. The upgrade reflects continued strong demand for its highest-end EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines, the only tools in the world capable of producing the most advanced AI chips.

Customers including TSMC reported 68% sales growth in June, driven by AI chip production, and are planning new advanced chip packaging plants. UBS analysts expect this buildout to sustain strong demand through the second half of 2026, supporting ASML's upgraded outlook.

Despite the robust guidance, semiconductor stocks face headwinds as investors question whether AI-driven capex can be sustained. ASML also faces tightening U.S. export restrictions on advanced chip equipment to certain countries. For architects: ASML's confidence signals sustained fab capacity buildout, but export controls may constrain global supply.