China power demand from data centers projected to grow 300–500 TWh by 2030, 18% of total growth
China's data center electricity demand is projected to surge 300 to 500 billion kilowatt-hours (300–500 TWh) between 2026 and 2030, accounting for 18% of total national electricity demand growth over the period, according to Pei Shanpeng, director of State Power Investment Corp. For context, the bottom of that range is roughly equivalent to the UK's entire annual electricity consumption. The projection reflects aggressive AI and compute infrastructure buildout driven by government policy. China aims for renewable energy to supply 80% of data center consumption by 2030, up from 11% in 2023.
However, forecasting and delivering that power faces barriers. Peak demand from data centers remains difficult to predict because AI infrastructure does not flex load as easily as traditional energy-intensive industries like aluminum smelting. Grid operators are hesitant to sign direct power-supply contracts to data centers, fearing revenue erosion on transmission and distribution infrastructure if demand slows. China's fast-tracked data center rollout has already strained regional grids in some areas, increasing both average and peak loads. If 15% of data center load could be made flexible or adjustable, it would significantly reduce grid capacity expansion pressure over the next three to five years.
The U.S. faces a parallel but more acute power crisis. The IEA projects global data center consumption will roughly double from 485 TWh (2025) to 945 TWh by 2030. U.S. data center consumption alone is expected to rise 240 TWh (130% from 2024), driven by AI infrastructure capex. Yet U.S. electricity consumption has been essentially flat for two decades; the grid permitting system can take over a decade for new transmission lines, and roughly 2,300 GW of generation and storage are stuck in interconnection queues with wait times past five years in many regions. Gartner projects 40% of AI data centers globally will be power-constrained by 2027.
For practitioners, the China vs. U.S. power gap is a geopolitical bellwether: China has invested continuously in capacity and grid infrastructure; the U.S. did not. Where AI infrastructure gets built over the next 18 months will be determined less by fiber, tax incentives, or land costs and more by one factor: available electricity at prices that work. This shift is reshaping hyperscaler strategy, colocation site selection, and regional competitiveness.