SpaceX stock slides to $148 post-Nasdaq 100 inclusion; analysts see AI data center, Starlink upside
SpaceX closed at $148 on July 8, sliding below its debut price of $150 for the second consecutive day following inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7. The rapid index inclusion, just 26 days post-IPO on June 12, triggered mechanical buying from index funds tracking the benchmark. SpaceX's record $85.7 billion IPO in June (after underwriters exercised the greenshoe overallotment) raised capital at an initial offer price of $135 per share; the stock peaked at $201.80 on June 16 before retreating.
Analyst sentiment remains largely bullish despite the post-inclusion pullback. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage at 'overweight' with a $300 price target; Bernstein at 'outperform' with $239; RBC at 'outperform' with $225; and UBS at 'buy' with a $210 12-month target. MoffettNathanson and CFRA represent the skeptical minority with neutral and sell ratings, respectively. Bull cases focus on SpaceX's lead in reusable rocket technology, the Starlink satellite internet footprint, and margin expansion opportunities for both launch services and the constellation.
Growth narratives emphasize new revenue vectors: analysts see potential for AI products and services competing with Anthropic's Claude and OpenAI's Codex, as well as orbital data center development. These represent speculative but non-trivial value creation pathways beyond the core launch and Starlink services. The stock's immediate retreat after index inclusion suggests profit-taking after the June 16 peak, despite underlying bullish thesis expansion.
For infrastructure investors, SpaceX's satellite-to-orbital-compute narrative mirrors broader capex concentration in frontier AI infrastructure. The rapid IPO execution and Nasdaq 100 inclusion timing reflect both retail appetite for space-tech exposure and institutional hedging against cloud computing monopoly. Whether orbital capacity and AI services materialize on timeline will be a multi-year watch for SpaceX shareholders.